A shrinking number of Californians live in poverty. But the improvement is much too slow.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the latest “supplemental” poverty measurements from the Census Bureau. These calculations weigh state-by-state incomes – that’s paychecks plus government assistance – against local living costs. And as every Californian painfully knows, this is a pricey place to live.
In the three years ended in 2023, California averaged 5.97 million residents who were defined as living in poverty. That’s easily No. 1 among the states and 16% of 36.4 million impoverished Americans.
After California in this poverty ranking came the state’s two key economic rivals – Texas at 3.76 million and Florida at 3.11 million. Next was New York at 2.5 million and Georgia at 1.26 million.
Now, if you look back to the pre-pandemic days of 2017 to 2019, the progress in boosting residents out of poverty becomes clear.
Census stats show the number of impoverished Californians dropped by 1.09 million in these four years – the largest drop among the states and 12% of the nation’s 9.1 million total decline.
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The next largest drops were in Texas, off 555,000, and Florida, off 536,000. Then came New York, off 512,000, and Pennsylvania, off 447,000.
But before too many celebrations begin, note that when you account for California’s No. 1 population size, the four-year poverty drop looks meek.
On a percentage basis, California poverty is down just 15% over four years, the seventh-smallest drop among the states. Nationally, poverty fell 20% from 2017-19.
The largest percentage improvement was found in Oregon, where poverty dropped 37%. Then came Rhode Island, off 6%, Maine, off 34%, Iowa, off 33%, and Utah, off 32%.
The smallest four-year improvements were in Nevada, down only 9%, then Washington, D.C., off 12%, Texas, off 13%, North Carolina, off 13%, Washington, off 14%, and Florida, off 15%.
Big slice
Let’s not forget that California also has the nation’s largest share of residents living in poverty – 15.4% vs. 11% nationally.
After California’s No. 1 slice came Louisiana at 14.3% of its population, D.C. at 14.1%, Florida at 14%, and Mississippi at 13.5%. Texas was eighth-worst at 12.6%.
Poverty was hardest to find in Maine, with a 5.9% rate. Next was Minnesota at 6.1%, South Dakota at 6.2%, Iowa at 6.5%, and Wisconsin at 6.6%.
Again, modest improvement was found in this poverty yardstick for the Golden State.
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Its poverty rate was down 2.8 percentage points from 18.2% in 2017-19. However, the nation’s rate fell 3.2 points in the same period from 14.2%.
And only 12 states had smaller dips in their poverty rates. The smallest improvements were in D.C., off 1.8 points, Nevada and Washington, off 1.9, New Hampshire, off 2.1, and Wyoming, off 2.4.
The largest improvements were in Oregon, off 5.2 points, Tennessee, off 4.8, Hawaii, off 4.8, New Mexico, off 4.8, and Mississippi, off 4.7.
By the way, Texas ranked No. 41 with a 2.6-point dip. Florida was No. 22, down 3.3 points.
Bottom line
Yes, poverty’s direction is positive, but California must do better.
Let’s be honest. A chunk of that four-year poverty improvement is due to folks leaving the state for cheaper places. And part of the dip is tied to the pandemic era’s government generosity that has not yet fully been pared back.
The true solution is policymakers working with business leaders, at state and local levels, using their collective powers to chill California’s cost of living. It’s zero secret that this work centers around cutting housing expenses by making unpopular decisions and smartly constructing more cost-conscious housing.
Of course, lifting the size of paychecks would be great for poverty, too. California household incomes grew by 17% in these four years.
Sadly, those noteworthy raises were largely gobbled up by 17% inflation in the same timeframe. And if the supply of housing isn’t significantly boosted, more pay only pushes rents and home prices skyward.
We know Californians set the pace in altering the global future of technology, communications and medicine. So cutting statewide poverty seems like a relatively simple endeavor, no?
Politically speaking
OK. It’s a presidential election year. So we wondered, who’s better at poverty – blue or red states?
My spreadsheet found, dividing states by support of President Biden in the 2020 election, that it’s a toss-up.
In 2021-23, blue states had more impoverished residents – 20.8 million to 15.7 million in red states. But blue states had a bigger poverty drop in four years – off 5.3 million vs. 3.9 million.
Curiously, both are 20% drops from 2017-19.
Now blue state poverty, out of 188 million residents, equals 11% of the 2021-23 population. And in red states, out of 143 million people, it’s also 11%.
Poverty, it seems, is politically color-blind.
