by LOS ANGELES, CA — The Southwestern U.S. is preparing for a warmer-than-normal Thanksgiving week as much of California, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah experiences a mild, stable pattern driven by ongoing La Niña conditions. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook for November 22–28, 2025 places most of the region in the above-normal temperature range.
Major travel hubs — including Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, San Diego and Tucson — are expected to see temperatures several degrees higher than late-November averages. This setup should provide residents and holiday travelers with a calm, low-impact weather window.
“La Niña is keeping the deepest cold in the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, allowing the Southwest to stay mild and mostly dry through Thanksgiving,” according to the latest NOAA outlook.
Shift Toward Cooler Conditions After Thanksgiving
While the holiday week will stay warm, a notable transition begins shortly afterward. The week 3–4 outlook for November 29–December 12 shows temperatures trending near-normal to slightly below normal across parts of the Southwest.
Cooling is most likely across Nevada, Utah and northern Arizona, while California and New Mexico shift closer to an average early-December pattern.
Early December Temperature Breakdown by State
California
Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego: Residents can expect near-normal early December temperatures, with slightly cooler conditions developing inland. Coastal zones remain seasonable with minimal weather impacts.
Arizona
Phoenix, Tucson: A modest cooling trend is expected. Early December mornings may turn noticeably colder as overnight lows drop back to seasonal norms.
Nevada
Las Vegas, Reno: Forecasts lean below normal, with colder overnight temperatures and a more winter-like feel settling in as December begins.
New Mexico
Albuquerque, Santa Fe: Conditions trend near normal, though occasional cold intrusions are possible as systems pass to the north.
Utah
Salt Lake City, Ogden: The state is likely to see cooler-than-normal conditions entering early December, bringing a more pronounced seasonal shift.
Read Also: Southern California Weather: Storm System Sparks Evacuation Warnings
Travel Outlook Across the Region
Holiday travel across I-10, I-8, I-15, I-40 and desert corridors should be relatively smooth, with warm and dry conditions dominating the Thanksgiving period. Once December begins, travelers may encounter more seasonable chill, particularly during early morning and overnight hours.
“It’s shaping up to be a favorable travel week, followed by a cooler, more typical early-December pattern,”
forecasters noted.
Outlook Moving Forward
The Southwest’s weather pattern reflects the broader influence of La Niña, which often keeps storm systems displaced northward and maintains warmer, drier spells across the region before winter transitions arrive. As December progresses, periodic cool shots may increase, especially in higher elevations and northern areas.
For ongoing weather updates, regional forecasts and insightful discussions, visit mikeandjonpodcast.com.
