MJP –
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day 2 Convective Outlook, highlighting a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Central Plains into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are anticipated, particularly in western and central Kansas during the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday, the NWS added.
An upper-level low pressure system, currently over the Four Corners region, is forecasted to move northeast across the Central Plains.
As this system progresses, it will enhance mid-level flow and introduce colder temperatures, setting the stage for potential severe weather, the NWS stated.
NWS – https://www.weather.gov/
A weak surface low is expected to traverse Kansas, accompanied by some modest low-level moisture, according to the NWS.
Initially, showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing from the Texas Panhandle to far eastern Colorado and western Kansas early Monday, fueled by warm advection. Although a predominantly linear storm mode is expected, vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized updrafts, posing a risk for large hail, according to the NWS.
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The greater risk for severe weather is anticipated in the afternoon as diurnal heating takes place.
With temperatures expected to reach the low to mid-70s and dewpoints in the low 60s, conditions could become favorable for discrete supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including tornadoes.
The most critical time frame for severe activity is projected between 4 PM and 10 PM, particularly from central Kansas into south-central Nebraska, the NWS stated.
