The last day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is November 30, 2024, but the Caribbean is already busy with a possible tropical storm.
Possible Tropical Cyclone 19 has formed in the western Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday afternoon. It will be called Sara if it turns into a tropical storm. Parts of Honduras and Nicaragua have been warned of hurricanes and tropical storms.
The hurricane center said that the storm would get stronger and turn into a tropical storm on Thursday. It’s going to get close to Honduras’ north coast late Friday and could stay there all weekend, putting the Central American country at risk of life-threatening flash floods.
Hurricane hunters are going to fly to the area on Thursday to check out how strong and stable the system of weather is becoming.
There was a low-pressure system in the western Caribbean that made it possible for a tropical storm to form. Forecast models use present weather conditions and data from the past to make “spaghetti plots” that show where systems might move. This is because each model uses a different set of calculations, which is how the expected track is the result of their agreement.
This system is only as strong as its fuel, which can be found in places with warm seas, little wind shear, and no fronts that block it, as well as how long it stays in those good conditions.
Models predict that it will stay in the western Caribbean through the weekend, no matter how strong it is, before moving north and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
After hitting the Gulf, forecasts say it will turn around and head toward Florida by the end of next week.
Things can change quickly and a lot can happen between now and next week, but places like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should get ready for heavy rain in the next few days. People in Florida should keep an eye on the weather and update it as new information comes in.
