Former Vice President Kamala Harris’ hold on the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is weakening, according to a new poll. Although she was a prominent figure in the 2024 presidential race, her position for the 2028 election is facing increasing competition.
Despite her defeat in 2024, Harris remains a strong contender for the 2028 election, though several other Democrats are emerging as serious rivals. Harris has not yet confirmed her plans to run for president, and there is also speculation about whether she will run for California’s governorship in 2026.
Supporters of Harris argue that she had a strong campaign in 2024, despite facing significant challenges. They contend that she managed to significantly narrow the gap compared to former President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race after a series of poor poll results, particularly following a rough debate against Donald Trump. These supporters believe Harris demonstrated resilience and could be a strong candidate in 2028, especially if given more time to campaign and address the party’s challenges.
However, many Democrats are now calling for new leadership within the party. Critics argue that Harris’s association with moderate Republicans, such as former Representative Liz Cheney, has hurt her appeal with key voter groups, particularly progressives and younger voters. These critics argue that the party needs to move away from older, establishment figures and embrace new leadership that better reflects the evolving political landscape.
A new poll, conducted by Data for Progress and surveying 745 likely Democratic primary voters from April 9 to April 14, 2025, shows a shift in support away from Harris. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, found that while Harris remains the favoured candidate, she is facing growing competition from other Democrats.
Among those polled, 18 per cent said they would vote for Harris in the primary, a solid showing but one that is slipping compared to earlier polls. The poll also found that 14 per cent of respondents favoured former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, while 12 per cent would support Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York or Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey.
The results of this poll indicate a shift toward other candidates in the Democratic field. Buttigieg, who recently opted not to run for statewide office in Michigan, has fueled speculation that he is preparing for another presidential bid.
Ocasio-Cortez has gained attention through her “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Senator Bernie Sanders, while Booker has garnered headlines with his 25-hour speech on the Senate floor. These rising stars are viewed as potential challengers to Harris, and their increasing popularity signals a shifting dynamic within the Democratic Party.
In addition to Harris, other potential candidates are also gaining support. California Governor Gavin Newsom earned 8 per cent of the vote in the Data for Progress poll, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro garnered 5 per cent. Other Democratic governors, such as Minnesota’s Tim Walz, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, each received 4 per cent of support. While these numbers may seem small, they reflect the growing number of Democrats considering a run for the 2028 nomination.
This poll represents Harris’s weakest showing in recent surveys of the 2028 Democratic primary. For comparison, an Echelon Insights poll conducted between April 10 and April 11, 2025, showed Harris with 28 per cent support, while a YouGov poll conducted between March 30 and April 1, 2025, had her at 25 per cent. Even more concerning for Harris is the Surveyusa poll from February 13 to 16, 2025, which showed her with 37 per cent support. These results suggest that, while Harris remains a significant figure within the Democratic Party, her dominance in the field may be waning.
The Zeteo report that accompanies the poll highlights the growing uncertainty within the Democratic Party as it looks toward the 2028 election. The report suggests that no clear frontrunner has emerged for the nomination, and that Harris’s once-dominant position may now be slipping. According to the Zeteo report, the Democratic field is wide open, with Buttigieg, Booker, and Ocasio-Cortez emerging as strong contenders. The report also notes that media-savvy Democrats who can effectively challenge the MAGA agenda could position themselves as the next leaders of the party.
Despite these challenges, Harris has remained active in her role and continues to connect with her supporters. During a visit to areas affected by wildfires in the Los Angeles region earlier this year, Harris spoke about her plans for the future.
She stated, “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them… I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”
Looking ahead, most candidates are not expected to enter the 2028 race until after the 2026 midterms officially. However, the speculation about who will run will continue, and Harris will likely be one of the key figures under discussion. It is expected that Harris will decide by the end of summer 2025 whether to run for California governor. If she chooses to run for governor instead of president, that could have a major impact on the Democratic field for 2028.
In conclusion, while Harris remains a significant figure within the Democratic Party, her hold on the 2028 nomination is far from secure. With strong competition from other Democratic leaders and a changing political landscape, it remains to be seen whether Harris can maintain her position as a top contender for the 2028 election.
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