National Retail Federation Predicts Trump’s Tariffs Will Inflate Consumer Costs

National Retail Federation Predicts Trump's Tariffs Will Inflate Consumer Costs

National Retail Federation (NRF) CEO Matthew Shay warned that shoppers could face higher prices on an array of goods if President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports to the U.S. are implemented. 

“The adoption of across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods and other non-strategic imports amounts to a tax on American families,” Shay said in a statement to FOX Business. “It will drive inflation and price increases and will result in job losses.” 

The NRF, the largest U.S. retail trade group, estimated in a recent study that Trump’s proposed new tariffs could cost American consumers between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power annually.

FOX Business reached out to Trump’s campaign for comment. 

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Under the proposals, a universal 10%-20% tariff would be imposed on imports from all foreign countries and an additional 60%-100% tariff would be imposed on imports specifically from China. Six categories of goods would be impacted, including apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods.

The NRF said some U.S. manufacturers may benefit from the tariffs, but the gains for U.S. producers and the Treasury would not outweigh the overall losses to consumers. The organization emphasized that low-income families would get hit especially hard.

National Retail Federation Predicts Trump's Tariffs Will Inflate Consumer Costs

The trade group used a $40 toaster oven as an example, estimating that the proposed tariffs would boost the cost of the product to between $48 to $52. The NRF also said a $50 pair of athletic shoes would jump to between $59 to $64. 

Overall, consumers would have to collectively pay $13.9 billion to $24 billion more for apparel, $8.8 billion to $14.2 billion more for toys, and $8.5 billion to $13.1 billion more for furniture, according to NRF’s survey. They would also have to pay $6.4 billion to $10.9 billion more for household appliances, $6.4 billion to $10.7 billion more for footwear, and $2.2 billion to $3.9 billion more for travel goods, according to the NRF.

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Still, Shay said the industry is ready to work with the incoming administration and members of Congress to enact tax, trade and regulatory policies that he says will “make America more competitive, increase domestic investment and create jobs.”

Brian Dodge, president of the Retail Industry Leaders Association, said “inflation was clearly a motivating factor” in the election results and that “policymakers should hear their concerns loud and clear as debates on taxes and tariffs take center stage.”

“Retailers are hopeful the incoming Trump Administration and Congress take a strategic approach to international trade, with policies that shield families from higher prices on consumer goods,” he added.

If effective trade policies are implemented, Shay said the U.S. can become more competitive with research, development and innovation.

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