by Baltimore, Maryland — As Christmas approaches, many families across Maryland are wondering whether snow will be part of the holiday scene this year. For now, forecasters say the odds of waking up to a white Christmas across most of the state remain very low, especially in Baltimore, central Maryland, and along the Eastern Shore.
Meteorologists note that while winter has already made a few appearances this month, the overall weather pattern leading into Christmas is not lining up in favor of widespread snow.
What qualifies as a “white Christmas”?
The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as at least a coating of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, not necessarily falling snow. By that standard, Maryland’s track record is mixed.
Historically, the Baltimore area sees a 20% to 40% chance of having snow on the ground on December 25. Even so, actual snowfall on Christmas Day is rare.
The last time Baltimore saw snow fall on Christmas Day was in 2002. In 2009, snow was still on the ground from an earlier storm, but no fresh snow fell on the holiday itself.
The city’s snowiest Christmas on record occurred in 1909, when 9.3 inches of snow blanketed the area.
Early winter has already delivered some snow
December hasn’t been completely quiet. Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport has already recorded two measurable snow events this month.
Other parts of northern Maryland have also seen sleet and light snow, marking several winter weather events before the holidays. However, meteorologists say the colder, snow-favorable pattern that affected the Mid-Atlantic earlier in the month is now beginning to relax.
Weather pattern shifting ahead of Christmas
Temperatures are expected to swing noticeably in the days leading up to Christmas, driven by brief but strong cold fronts moving through the region.
Forecasters say conditions will be mildest Friday morning, when heavy rain and storms are expected. That system will be followed by a sharp blast of cold air later Friday, setting up a colder start to the weekend.
By Sunday afternoon, temperatures are forecast to rebound into the upper 40s and lower 50s, before another cold front arrives Sunday evening.
That timing means a cold and breezy Ravens home game at M&T Bank Stadium, with temperatures dropping into the 30s during the evening hours.
Christmas week outlook: cold, but mostly dry
As Christmas week begins, colder air settles back into the region. Forecasters say there is a chance for light rain or snow showers late Monday into Tuesday, but no accumulation is expected at this time.
Temperatures then trend warmer again on Christmas Eve, with parts of the Baltimore area expected to climb above 50 degrees by Wednesday afternoon.
Another surge of colder air is expected around Christmas Day, arriving alongside a developing storm system. However, meteorologists say the track and timing remain uncertain.
Snow unlikely for most of Maryland
At this point, the storm expected near Christmas Day appears likely to be mostly a rain-maker for central Maryland and the Eastern Shore. The heaviest precipitation is forecast to stay south of the state, limiting the chance for snow locally.
Any snowfall that does develop is expected to be spotty and confined to higher elevations, particularly in far western Maryland, as well as parts of West Virginia and Virginia.
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For Baltimore and much of the state, forecasters say rain — not snow — is the more likely outcome.
Looking beyond Christmas
While hopes for a white Christmas may fade, meteorologists note that the pattern could become more favorable for wintry weather after Christmas, just as many people return from holiday travel and resume normal routines.
Cold air lingering into late December could eventually combine with future storm systems, keeping winter weather on the table before the year ends.
For now, though, Marylanders hoping for snow-covered lawns and rooftops on Christmas morning may need to keep expectations modest.
Do you think Maryland will see snow before the end of the year? Share your thoughts in the comments.
