California’s Prop 36 Set for Success: Poll Indicates Large Margin of Support

MJP –

Nearly three-quarters of the California electorate plans to vote for a high-profile ballot measure that would increase penalties for some theft- and drug-related crimes, according to a new poll released Wednesday .

Seventy-three percent of likely voters said they would support Proposition 36 , the survey from the Public Policy Institute of California found, compared with just 25 percent who plan to oppose it. That’s a slight increase from PPIC’s September poll , which found 71 percent of likely voters in favor of it.

Support for Prop 36 was the highest among the slate of 10 statewide issue questions appearing on Californians’ ballots this fall. It was also the measure named by the most voters — 28 percent — as the one in which they were most interested.

Crime has become a major campaign issue heading into November, in part because of Prop 36’s presence on the ballot. The measure’s support has been fueled by lingering voter concerns since a surge in certain crimes during the pandemic, but faced resistance from leading Democrats like Gov. Gavin Newsom, who warn against a harsh pivot back to tough-on-crime policies.

Other measures the PPIC poll found are in a strong position to pass include Prop 3 , a constitutional amendment that would remove dormant language from the state constitution banning same-sex marriage. Sixty-seven percent of likely voters said they’d back Prop 3, compared with just 32 percent who would vote “no.”

Prop 35 , which would make permanent a tax on certain health care plans and direct its revenue to Medi-Cal — the state’s system for Medicaid programs — also received above 60 percent in the poll.

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Of the two $10 billion bond measures on the ballot this fall, Prop 4 , which would fund climate and water-related projects, has the strongest support. Sixty percent of likely voters said they would support it, compared with 38 percent who oppose it. Prop 2 , which would fund school construction, has a narrower lead: 52 percent of likely voters said they would vote “yes” and 46 percent said they’d vote “no.”

The other five measures on November’s ballot — on issues ranging from rent control to raising the minimum wage to banning forced prison labor — currently fall below the necessary 50 percent threshold to pass, according to PPIC’s polling.

Prop 33 , which would allow local governments to enact rent control and has seen a costly campaign between the AIDS Healthcare Foundation backing the measure and the California Apartment Association opposing it, stands at 42 percent support among likely voters. Fifty-four percent say they would vote against Prop 33.

The ballot measure with the lowest support in PPIC’s poll is Prop 6 , which would ban forced prison labor in California’s state constitution. Forty-one percent said they planned to vote “yes,” while 56 percent said they would vote “no.”

In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump by a wide margin: 59 percent of likely California voters said they’ll back Harris, compared with 33 percent who plan to vote for Trump.

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff leads his Republican opponent, baseball star Steve Garvey, by an even wider margin in the race for U.S. Senate , 63 percent to 37 percent.

The PPIC poll surveyed 1,137 likely voters from Oct. 7 to 15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.